The Backyard – So… How’d I Do With My 2025 Predictions?

Happy Friday all! Welcome to The Backyard.

A year ago, I kicked off 2025 by rolling the dice on some hobby predictions — not insider stuff, just guesses about where the hobby might be headed. Now that we’re near year’s end, it’s time to take stock and see how those predictions held up.

Retro Racing Truly Arrives in Force?

This one feels like a solid win across the board. Retro racing didn’t just survive in 2025 — it accelerated. We saw more re-releases hit the market, strong signals that additional classics are on the way, and some truly massive retro-focused races take place throughout the year. Even better, many of those events are already locked in for next season, which tells you this isn’t a flash-in-the-pan trend.

What’s really encouraging is that retro racing continues to bring together multiple generations of hobbyists. Longtime racers get to relive platforms they grew up with, while newer folks are discovering why these cars mattered in the first place. The barrier to entry is relatively low, the vibes are fun, and the racing is competitive without being overly serious — which is exactly why it’s thriving.

If anything, 2025 proved that nostalgia isn’t holding the hobby back — it’s fueling it. Retro racing has momentum, community buy-in, and manufacturer support, and there’s no sign of it slowing down heading into 2026.

Verdict: Nailed it. Retro racing is here to stay — and it’s only getting bigger.

1/12 Stock Car & Scale Oval Racing Goes Boom?

This was one I was genuinely optimistic about. Early on in 2025, it felt like oval and 1/12 stock car racing had real momentum behind it, helped in no small part by Losi’s entry into the space in 2024 that created major waves. Unfortunately, pricing ended up taking a lot of wind out of those sails. The newest version of the Losi stock car launched at a price point that many racers simply weren’t willing to bite on, especially for a platform that depends heavily on participation and class growth. What followed was telling — inventory sat, discounts appeared, and what could’ve been a strong grassroots push lost some steam.

That’s not to say oval racing is dead or even struggling — far from it. The interest is still there, and the format still makes a ton of sense for clubs and racers alike. But 2025 showed that price sensitivity matters a lot in this segment, and getting too aggressive too fast can stall what should be a momentum-driven category.

Verdict: I’m calling this a miss. It’s still popular of course, but I wouldn’t say a boom happened either.

Old-School Solid-Axle Monster Truck?

I have made this prediction for the last couple of years and was certain someone would finally give us a true leaf-spring, old-school monster truck in 2025. The hobby wants it, and it would be an awesome throwback.

Did it happen? Nope. Wrong again. We did get great monster truck releases, but they weren’t the specific old-school flavor I predicted.

Verdict: Swing and a miss (again).

HPI Returns as a Major Player in the States?

HPI carried the momentum from its late-2024 Venture 18 release into this year with a steady string of follow-up products. We’ve seen several additional vehicles return to the U.S. market, capped most recently by the release of the Big Kahuna monster truck — and not in just one size, but two different scales.

Just as important as the products themselves is the distribution story. HPI’s U.S. distribution has clearly beefed up, and for the first time in years the brand feels present again. Not teased. Not rumored. Not “coming soon.” Actually available. And that availability has long been the missing piece.

Is HPI back to its former, dominant self? Not quite. But 2025 showed real, tangible progress. For a brand that’s had more than its fair share of false starts, simple consistency is a meaningful step forward. For the first time in a long while, it feels fair to say HPI is back — cautiously, deliberately, and one release at a time.

Verdict: I’m calling this one a win. A measured one, but a win nonetheless!

The Next Big Trend Shows Itself

This was my “mystery slot” prediction — something new was going to start bubbling up and set the hobby off on a fresh tangent. I wasn’t wrong that the hobby was ready for something, but what that something is still feels murky. There were glimpses — kit culture saw attention for a stretch, and various micro and vintage niches got play — but no single breakout movement defined the year.

Verdict: This was a miss on my part.

Final Thoughts: The Crystal Ball Needs New Batteries

So… yeah. When I add it all up, I’m coming in at 2 out of 5 on my 2025 predictions. That’s not exactly a victory lap — more like a polite nod and a slow walk back to the pits.

That said, staring down a losing record is also what makes this exercise fun. It forces a little humility, a little reflection, and a lot of recalibration — which brings me right to next week, when I’ll dust off that crystal ball, replace the batteries, and see how brave (or foolish) I’m feeling about 2026.

Until next time, keep it on all 4’s.